San Francisco Story: Single-family homes fetch the highest percentage of original price we’ve seen in nearly two years

March 26, 2025

The Big Story: National Take

Click Here To Jump To San Francisco Data

Quick Take:

Affordability remains a concern across the country despite lower interest rates compared to this time last year.
New homes are being added to the market, with the US seeing a 4.21% year-over-year increase in the number of new listings in February.
Inventory is getting back to healthier levels as we see backlogs begin to build across the country.

Note: You can find the charts & graphs for the Big Story at the end of the following section.
*National Association of REALTORS® data is released two months behind, so we estimate the most recent month's data when possible and appropriate.

Affordability continues to be an issue nationwide

One of the headline issues in the real estate industry over the past few years has been, of course, the affordability (or rather the unaffordability) of homes. Unfortunately for new buyers, and more specifically first time home-buyers, this issue looks like it will persist throughout 2025. Mortgage rates remain comparatively high, and home prices largely have not given back their pandemic-era gains.

This has, of course, made the dreams of homeownership difficult to achieve for countless people around the country. With the median monthly principal and interest payment exceeding $2,100 per month on a nationwide level, people are struggling to afford the purchase of a new home!

New homes are starting to hit the market again

Fortunately for the market, there are plenty of new homes hitting the market though. While there are countless people sitting on the sidelines, waiting for lower interest rates to sell their current home and buy a new one, some of these holdouts are giving up and listing their homes. The writing seems to be on the wall, meaning more and more people are giving up on the thought that we will see lower interest rates in the short term, causing them to list their homes.

This has resulted in a pleasant jump in new home listings, despite us being at the tail end of the slow season. In the month of february, we saw more than 353,000 homes hit the market nationwide. This represents a 4.21% increase on a year-over-year basis, and an 8.15% increase on a month-over-month basis!

Inventories are beginning to build, offering more options for buyers

Since we are seeing new inventory hit the market and a steady level of demand, this is causing inventories to build, which is a great sign for those looking to enter the market! In the month of January, there were 1,180,000 homes listed on the market, representing a 16.83% increase on a year-over-year basis and a 3.51% increase on a month-over-month basis. At the same time, we’re seeing demand stagnate a bit, with 4,080,000 homes sold in January, representing a 2% increase when compared to last year and a 4.9% decrease when compared to last month!

Although a top-tier property will likely end up in a bidding war, no matter if it’s in Kansas City or Calabasas, this increase in inventory could mean that there are some deals to be had on listings that sit on the market for a few weeks.

While there are areas that deviate from the national trends, this is generally what's happening nationwide. Below, you'll find a local lowdown that provides you with the in-depth coverage of your area that you need. We will continue to monitor the housing market and overall economy to help guide you in buying or selling your home.

Big Story Data

The San Francisco Local Lowdown

Quick Take:

Inventory continues to be a huge problem throughout San Francisco, with continued year-over-year declines.
Median sale prices continue to gyrate around the 2-year average, as supply and demand move roughly in-line with each other.
Single-family homes continue to be a hot commodity, while condos continue to sit on the market.

Note: You can find the charts/graphs for the Local Lowdown at the end of this section.

Inventory continues to dwindle away in San Francisco

Over the past year or so, we’ve seen a very concerning trend emerge in San Francisco that many of the other submarkets in the Bay Area haven’t exhibited. That is, inventory is dwindling away in San Francisco, especially within the single-family home market. While many submarkets throughout the Bay Area are seeing a resurgence in inventories, as sellers begin to list their homes again, sellers in San Francisco remain resilient in holding onto their properties. This has led to a 15.87% year-over-year decrease in active single-family home listings and a 7.70% decrease in the number of condo listings!

Single-family homes fetch the highest percentage of original price we’ve seen in nearly two years

Due to the lack of supply on the market, single family homes are fetching well above asking price when they sell, making it a profoundly difficult market for first-time home buyers. The average single-family home listing sold for 113.3% of the original asking price in February, marking the highest level we’ve seen since May of 2022! It is important to note, though, that we’re not seeing the same phenomenon in the condo market, as most condos sell either at the listing price or slightly below the listing price.

Supply and demand are remaining fairly balanced, for now

Luckily for buyers in the San Francisco area, supply and demand have been more or less moving in line with each other over the past couple of months. However, in order to have a meaningful change to the inventory levels we’re seeing, new listing growth will have to outstrip sold listing growth by a considerable margin for a long period of time.

Sellers control the single-family home market, while buyers control the condo market

When determining whether a market is a buyers’ market or a sellers’ market, we look to the Months of Supply Inventory (MSI) metric. The state of California has historically averaged around three months of MSI, so any area with at or around three months of MSI is considered a balanced market. Any market that has lower than three months of MSI is considered a seller’s market, whereas markets with more than three months of MSI are considered buyers’ markets.

San Francisco remains a divided market, as sellers have the negotiating power in the single-family home market. Whereas buyers have a bit more leverage in the condo market. Right now, San Francisco’s single-family home market has roughly 1.2 months’ worth of supply, and its condo market has around 3.4 months’ worth of supply.